Playing The Odds

When I was diagnosed a little more than a year ago, I did some research and discovered that, statistically, my chances of surviving 5 years were only 3% or 3 out of 100. Not too hopeful but I have a chance. When I began chemo treatments Dr. George told me the modality that would be used had a 60% response rate. In other words 40% of patients do not even respond to the chemo. Since my response to the chemo has been good, I have often wondered about something. Can you assume that the 3 people out of 100 who survive 5 years are within the 60% group that responds to the chemo? If so, that would mean that 3 people out of the 60 in that group survive 5 years. Three out of sixty is 5%. Does that mean that by having a good response to the treatment my odds of surviving five years has increased to 5%? Unfortunately that logic is somewhat flawed because it doesn’t take into account people do not respond and then receive a different modality or those who undergo a completely different modality from the start. But I have to believe that my chances improved by responding well. Recently I found out that my odds have improved more than I thought. Colin, another patient and a 9 year survivor, provided me with a link to some National Cancer Institute statistics. Those statistics show that patients with my diagnosis, “Distant” stage on their table, who have survived the first year, have a 10.8% chance of surviving 5 MORE years. In other words, because I have survived the first year, I now have a 10.8% chance of making it SIX years. My chances of making it five years must be even better. So my chances have more than tripled. Of course 10.8% odds are still not very good but hey, it’s better than 3%! Here is a link to the stats if anyone is interested: Statistics As I have been reminded by so many people dealing with this disease everybody is different. We are each a statistic of one. And I have two important things going for me. Firstly, all the prayers. They really do help so please keep them coming. Secondly, I like to rely on my mother’s statistical analysis. She has a gut feeling I’m going to be OK. Carry on. ---------------------------------------------------------