If you are reading this for the first time and want to hear the whole story, look under "BLOG ARCHIVE" on the right. Read the oldest blog first, starting with "The Diagnosis" in January 2009 (click on it) and continuing down. The blog you see below is the most recent and you want to read it last.
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Playing The Odds
When I was diagnosed a little more than a year ago, I did some research and discovered that, statistically, my chances of surviving 5 years were only 3% or 3 out of 100. Not too hopeful but I have a chance.
When I began chemo treatments Dr. George told me the modality that would be used had a 60% response rate. In other words 40% of patients do not even respond to the chemo.
Since my response to the chemo has been good, I have often wondered about something. Can you assume that the 3 people out of 100 who survive 5 years are within the 60% group that responds to the chemo? If so, that would mean that 3 people out of the 60 in that group survive 5 years. Three out of sixty is 5%. Does that mean that by having a good response to the treatment my odds of surviving five years has increased to 5%?
Unfortunately that logic is somewhat flawed because it doesn’t take into account people do not respond and then receive a different modality or those who undergo a completely different modality from the start. But I have to believe that my chances improved by responding well.
Recently I found out that my odds have improved more than I thought. Colin, another patient and a 9 year survivor, provided me with a link to some National Cancer Institute statistics. Those statistics show that patients with my diagnosis, “Distant” stage on their table, who have survived the first year, have a 10.8% chance of surviving 5 MORE years. In other words, because I have survived the first year, I now have a 10.8% chance of making it SIX years. My chances of making it five years must be even better. So my chances have more than tripled. Of course 10.8% odds are still not very good but hey, it’s better than 3%!
Here is a link to the stats if anyone is interested:
Statistics
As I have been reminded by so many people dealing with this disease everybody is different. We are each a statistic of one. And I have two important things going for me. Firstly, all the prayers. They really do help so please keep them coming. Secondly, I like to rely on my mother’s statistical analysis. She has a gut feeling I’m going to be OK.
Carry on.
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Thanks for the link! It was very informative. I'm feeling great since according to those statistics we're now somewhere between 10.8% and 52.6% since we're getting closer to the 2 year mark! That 10% sounds goood to me. If you can be one of the few who get it in the first place, I figure you can be one of the few who survive it! Right?!
ReplyDeleteAlthough, now I'm completely confused. Does a recurrence mean the year count starts over? Less than age 45? What if it wasn't really a recurrence? Ohhh heck. I say go with what mamma says. Go with the gut feeling. :)
ReplyDeleteI definitely did not inherit the math genes.... but thanks for the strikingly good looks! LOL =)
ReplyDelete(and very glad to hear any stat that says you are going to live a long, happy life!)
I AGREE WITH HEATHER!PLUS THE PERCENTAGE INCREASE! AND YOUR MOTHERS INSTINCT!!!!!! XO CAROL
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